The evolution is complete.
The affordability of solar energy in the last twenty years or so has been nothing less than remarkable. What used to be a prohibitively expensive niche power generation method is now mainstream. The price of solar has reached a point where any radio amateur can implement it on some level. In spite of inflation, supply chain interruptions, and tariffs, solar is still an attainable and popular energy source.
GRAPHIC COURTESY OF OURWORLDINDATA.ORG
The “good old days” are now.
The cliche´ of elderly people talking about how much better things were in the “old days” may have some truth to it in terms of the world writ large. In the context of solar power, the old days were not good at all. Twenty five years ago, wholesale solar panels cost an average of $6.41 USD/watt. Going back to the nascent stages of consumer solar in the 1980s, it cost between $12-$36 USD/watt. Prior to that in the 1970s, solar was so costly (as much as $100 USD/watt) that it was used only for exceptional needs such as spacecraft or very small applications such as watches and calculators.
As of 2023, the wholesale price of solar is $0.31 USD/watt. I could not find data more recent than that but anecdotally prices seem to have stayed the same or possibly gone down further.
GRAPHIC COURTESY OF OURWORLDINDATA.ORG
About those tariffs…
Before partisans start hyperventilating about how tariffs are either a blessing or a curse (depending one’s political bend), be aware that solar panel tariffs were already in place since 2012 and Presidents of both parties have upheld and even expanded them since then. Notably, all this happened with very little controversy or media attention. So, while tariffs are a trendy hot topic, it’s very old news for those of us who follow the solar energy industry. Therefore, both political parties get a share of the blame (or credit) for what happened (or didn’t happen) as a result of the solar panel tariffs.
Additionally, nearly all solar panels sold in the USA do not come from China (which is the primary target of the tariffs), but do contain components sourced from China. The components may be tariffed, but the entire panel is not, at least not any more than it already is. The partial tariffs dilute into the overall cost to the point where it’s much less impactful to the end consumer.
Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam account for 80% of the solar panels sold in the USA. If you really want to know what’s going on regarding tariffs, keep a watch on these four countries.
And lastly, as of this writing, most of the tariffs are on hold pending negotiations with individual countries. If the USA comes to an agreement with partner trading nations, which is more likely than not to happen, all this tariff talk will be moot.
The good news: it’s not that complicated.
It’s easy to get lost trying to sort out all the data and analysis. The good news is that you don’t have to be an energy policy geek who thrives on this stuff. I’ll cheerfully sweat the details for you! In the interest of keeping it simple, most of what you need to know is reflected in the retail prices of solar panels. Of course, anyone can easily look up retail prices on line. One can consistently buy good quality solar panels for well under $1.00 USD/watt. Even with the current tariffs, which are included in these prices, solar panels are significantly less expensive than they were before the 2012 tariffs. Advances in production techniques and economies of scale more than make up for the tariffs. price of solar
There are caveats.
Solar panel prices are low and holding steady at this time, but if proposed additional tariffs come to pass, that could of course make solar more expensive. Likewise, if the current tariffs (in place for thirteen years) are reduced or suspended, we could possibly see prices go even lower than they are now. price of solar
Radio amateurs who use solar on a small scale, such as a portable panel for QRP operation, may not think any of this matters. In that limited context, it doesn’t. Still, small additional costs have a cumulative effect. A modest increase on a single item is not likely to be a deal-breaker for anyone. However, when the price of all the hardware & devices needed to put a station on the air starts drifting up a few dollars at a time, it adds up to real money. This is not a good trajectory for an avocation that already has a richly-deserved reputation for draining wallets.
What does the future look like?
At least for the short term, solar panel prices should remain stable, or at most increase by a few cents per watt. As we’ve discussed, solar is super-affordable and we want to keep it that way! Two main factors may effect future solar panel prices:
- Roll out of new technology, such as perovskite solar
- Increased tariffs on imported solar panels.
Neither of these situations are likely to happen soon, so the most plausible outcome is status quo. In a world where everything seems to cost more and more, that’s encouraging news.
Your points about panel pricing are good. But there are other components to that off grid system whether as a ham, running your house or both. There’s been some disruption in the component supply chain in the last year and its not over.
Hi JR, great to hear from you. This article was focused solely on solar panels, but you are correct in that batteries, controllers, wire, and pretty much everything needed to make ham radio happen is at risk for supply interruptions and price increases.